Japan’s post-Fukushima challenge – implications from the German experience on renewable energy policy

The Japanese electricity sector is facing serious challenges in the aftermath of the Fukushima nuclear disaster. The government has responded to the crisis with a new feed-in-tariff to promote increased utilization of renewable energy, and proposed to reduce the dependence on nuclear power. In this viewpoint, we liken the transition implied by recently updated goals for the diffusion of renewables in Japan to the transition in Germany in the last decade. We argue that some of the lessons learned in Germany might prove valuable for the steps Japan considers taking. In particular, we focus on the new Japanese feed-in tariff for solar photovoltaics. In view of the recent developments in Germany, we emphasize the importance of the scheme’s political legitimacy, which needs to be maintained through adequate design of both policy instrument and political process. We conclude with policy implications and a targeted research agenda. & 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 1. The Japanese energy crisis after Fukushima On March 11, 2011, a 9.0 magnitude earthquake struck off the coast of Japan’s Tōhoku region, followed by a tsunami and a nuclear meltdown at the Fukushima Dai-ichi power plant. The accident and the continued struggle to contain radiation at the 4.7 GW nuclear facilities have plunged the country’s electricity sector into a massive crisis. Having revealed the vulnerability of the country’s power system, the disaster appears set to shift the fundamental paradigms of Japan’s energy policy. Before Fukushima, the country’s long-term energy strategy had revolved around an ever-increasing share of nuclear power. Japan’s energy strategy is formulated in the ‘Basic Energy Plan’, outlining the long-term strategy for the country’s future energy mix. The latest version in 2010 targeted the nuclear share of power production to surge from roughly 30% to 50% by 2030 (see Duffield and Woodall, 2011). This strategy has been shaken to its very foundations. A substantial part of Japan’s nuclear capacity has been forced to shut down in the aftermath of the earthquake. The decision over whether idle reactors should be allowed to restart has been delegated to the local governments of jurisdiction (IEEJ, 2011a). This currently represents a significant challenge, amid a public growing increasingly distrustful of nuclear power (DeWit, 2011a). Consequently, Japan declared in an energy white paper in October 2011 that it would aim to reduce the dependency on nuclear power and revise the Basic Energy Plan, starting ‘‘from a blank state’’ (METI, 2011a, p. 2). The Fukushima meltdown thus represents a major turning point and a huge opportunity for Japan’s energy future. The government’s response will set the course regarding nuclear safety, energy security, costs, and carbon emissions. Whether and how these objectives can be reconciled will depend on the political steps taken in the in the coming years (Ashina et al., 2011). It has been proposed that Japan should follow the example of countries that successfully promoted the use of renewable energy, such as Germany (e.g., DeWit and Kaneko, 2011; Iida, 2011). In this viewpoint, we liken the transition implied by recently proposed goals for renewables to the transition Germany underwent in the last decade. In particular, we describe some important lessons learned from the support of solar photovoltaics (PV) in Germany and discuss their implications in the context of Japanese policy. 2. Renewable energy policy in Japan before Fukushima Lacking significant domestic fossil fuel resources, Japanese energy policy has always been centered around concerns of